The gay marriage campaign in Ireland has no direction. Before the civil partnership bill passed, it was quite clear the routes that were available: you could support civil partnership as providing some of the benefits of marriage to gay couples, or you could oppose it for its creation of a separate, inadequate institution solely for gay people. For both groups of people, the goal of full civil marriage was largely the same, but they were energised by the very immediate issue of impending legislation. And with its passing, all involved are faced with a sobering question – just where do you go from here?
It accounts, I think, for the admittedly disappointing turn-out at the most recent March for Marriage. It's rare that the masses will turn out to march without some concrete motivation. At the March for Marriage, the rallying point was an opinion: we would like civil marriage. That opinion doesn't especially mobilise people; it doesn't even enthuse people, particularly when accompanied by the tacit admission, "…but we really don't know yet how we're going to go about getting it."
There were some indications that a mass postcard campaign is planned. What about our TDs' opinions at the moment requires changing? Their broad support for gay rights is matched by a broad agreement that any gay marriage legislation would require a constitutional referendum. They may be wrong in that belief, but there are no plans to disabuse them if they are. That would require a legal argument, which, particularly in light of the recent Supreme Court judgement concerning the lesbian couple and their sperm donor, seems problematic. In that case, Justice Denham was quite explicit: "Therefore, arising from the terms of the Constitution, "family" means a family based on marriage, the marriage of a man and a woman."
The call for a referendum could perhaps be the issue around which the campaign could rally, but none of the advocacy groups particularly mention it, and the word "referendum" was not heard once at the March for Marriage. Why not? If the belief is that a referendum is not required, let's hear the case for it, and let's put that case to TDs. Otherwise the mere demand that gay marriage be introduced is rather toothless.
In fact, the recent Irish Times/Behaviour Attitudes poll, in which 67% said gay couples should be allowed to marry, ought to have been a spur to the call for a referendum. Here at last was some solid evidence that gay people need not necessarily be afraid of a socially conservative electorate. Instead, Marriage Equality called for the Government to legislate on civil marriage immediately. Their position seems to be that the Government should introduce legislation that it, and the rest of the Dáil, fully believes will be immediately struck down by the Supreme Court, just so we can be absolutely sure that a referendum is necessary. I don't believe that that's a successful position from which to campaign.
Of course, despite this majority, it's also true that only the pro-gay marriage groups are actively campaigning at the moment. A referendum would bring out of the woodwork, as well as moderate objectors, all the vicious anti-gay bigots, and it would give them licence to peddle their most homophobic arguments in the interests of national debate. In the face of that, it's certainly possible that support will slip. The prospect of losing a referendum is particularly pernicious to the gay marriage campaign, to have fired up the homophobes not only with no benefit but with a clear mandate from the electorate not to introduce gay marriage any time soon.
Perhaps then the unspoken consensus is to continue to call (but in no specific manner) for the introduction of gay marriage, with the intention of accumulating public support. But without a clear direction, without some concrete goal for the gay community to mobilise around, the next March for Marriage risks being even smaller. And that in turn risks sending the message that gay people are satisfied with things as they are.